[1]Estrella A, Hardouvelis G A. The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity[J]. Journal of Finance, 1991, 46(2):555-576. [2]Bernard H, Gerlach S. Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence[J]. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 1998, 3(3):195-215. [3]Bordo M D, Haubrich J G. The Yield Curve, Recessions, and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long-Run Evidence, 1875-1997[R]. NBER Working Paper, 2004:10431. [4]裘翔. 期限错配与商业银行利差[J]. 北京:金融研究, 2015(5):83-100. [5]Duarte A, Veneis I A,Paya I.Predicting Real Growth and the Probability of Recession in the Euro Area Using the Yield Spread[J]. Working Papers Serie Ad, 2004, 21(2):261-277. [6]Adrian T, Estrella A.Monetary Tightening Cycles and the Predictability of Economic Activity[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2008, 99(2):260-264. [7]Adrian T, Shin H S. Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy[J]. American Economic Review, 2009, 99(2):600-605. [8]Adrian T, Estrella A, Shin H S. Monetary Cycles, Financial Cycles and the Business Cycle[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2010(421):581-599. [9]Aksoy Y, Basso H S. Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy[J]. Economic Journal, 2014, 124(581):1234–1278. [10]石柱鲜, 孙皓, 邓创. 中国主要宏观经济变量与利率期限结构的关系:基于VAR-ATSM模型的分析[J]. 北京:世界经济, 2008(3):53-59. [11]康书隆, 王志强. 中国国债利率期限结构的风险特征及其内含信息研究[J]. 北京:世界经济, 2010(7):121-143. [12]金雯雯, 陈亮, 毛德勇,等.利率期限结构内含的宏观经济信息——基于TVP-VAR模型的时变参数研究[J]. 武汉:经济评论, 2014(5):123-135. [13]王志强, 李青川, 贺畅达. 利率期限结构与经济增长的非线性关系研究——基于平滑转换模型的实证分析[J]. 北京:国际金融研究, 2014(4):27-38. [14]Nakajima J, Kasuya M, Watanabe T.Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy[J]. Journal of the Japanese & International Economies, 2011, 25(3):225-245. [15]许伟, 陈斌开. 银行信贷与中国经济波动:1993—2005[J]. 北京:经济学(季刊), 2009, 8(2):969-994. [16]Elekdag S A, Wu Y. Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?[R]. IMF Working Papers, 2015:11241. [17]李连发, 辛晓岱. 银行信贷、经济周期与货币政策调控:1984—2011[J]. 北京:经济研究, 2012(3):102-114. [18]周亮.中国波指、股指期货与投资者情绪[J].长春:税务与经济,2017(9):19-25. [19]唐雨虹,等.中国上市公司股权激励实施效果研究[J].长沙:财经理论与实践,2017(8):57-61. |